The upcoming launch of Battlefield 6, slated to hit store shelves and download queues on October 10, represents a high-stakes attempt by Electronic Arts (EA) to revive one of their most valuable intellectual property (IP) franchises. Even before the publisher announced it would be acquired by a private equity consortium for $55 billion, the success of the Battlefield 6 launch was already set to be shaped by a mix of challenges and opportunities.
Deviating from the core
The headwinds to the launch have been known for some time. For starters, the prior two iterations of the franchise – Battlefield V (2018) and Battlefield 2042 (2021) – performed poorly with players and were critically panned by most review outlets. Battlefield 2042 represented a notable deviation from the franchise’s recipe for success by removing the campaign mode and multiple short-format multiplayer modes and introducing the 128-player Conquest mode, leading to increasing match length and complexity that didn’t resonate with players. 2042 reportedly sold less than 5 million copies, a far cry from Battlefield 1's (2016) reported 25 million copies.
A challenging market
The other major challenge for the Battlefield 6 launch is the market, and in particular PC and console sales, which peaked at approximately $86 billion in 2021 (thanks to pandemic-era lockdowns) and have since contracted to around $82 billion in 2024 (a 2% annual decline). Underscoring that top-line decline were decreases in the PC and console player base, from around 1.2 billion monthly active users (MAUs) in 2021 to approximately 1.1 billion in 2024, with plateauing average revenues per user (ARPU) and playtimes. The PC and console market is not growing, and Battlefield 6 will launch into a crowded AAA ecosystem where players have invested significant time in live-service games like Fortnite and GTA Online or titles with annual releases like Call of Duty. Standing out will be a challenge.
Return to roots
But there are many reasons for optimism. Battlefield 6 represents a return to the formula that made the titles of the 2010s so successful. It will reintroduce a campaign mode, giving new players a low-stress entry point into the game. It will bring back smaller, traditional multiplayer modes, such as Squad Deathmatch, Domination, and King of the Hill – popular formats that players are familiar with from other competitive shooters. It is eliminating the 128-player Conquest mode as well as the class system of player customization, two unpopular additions first introduced in 2042. These changes show that EA is listening to the player community, reintroducing popular features of past games and eliminating new ideas that failed to resonate with players. Battlefield 6 will also introduce the popular Battle Royale mode and improved gameplay mechanics, like environmental destruction and the “Kinesthetic Combat System.”
Positive pre-launch KPIs
Over the past few months, a slew of positive indicators hit the market, signifying that fans are ready to re-engage with the franchise at levels comparable to past high-water marks. The Battlefield 6 Open Beta launched in early August, giving players a two-week free trial period, and set a franchise record of 521,079 concurrent players on Steam alone. According to media research firm Ampere Analysis, over 22 million players tried the game during the beta. Again, on the Steam (PC) platform alone, there were over 600,000 pre-orders and 2.7 million wish lists as of the first week of the beta.
A technical analysis by TickerTrends observed a correlation between Google search activity and first-year sales of past Battlefield titles. The analysis revealed that search activity for Battlefield 6 was comparable to that of pre-release search activity for Battlefield 3 and Battlefield 4, titles that sold approximately 3 million copies in the first week after launch (Battlefield 1 sold around 5 million copies in its first week). Based on this analysis, we estimate that Battlefield 6 will sell between approximately 3 to 4 million copies in its first week and between approximately 10 to 15 million copies in the first year. These sales levels would translate to around $800 million to $2 billion in first-year game sales revenues, excluding any micro-transactions or ad revenue EA could generate from the release.
Eleventh-hour curve ball
These factors have set the stage for one of the most highly anticipated releases of 2025; then, less than two weeks before launch day, Electronic Arts announced that it would participate in one of the largest take-private transactions ever, agreeing to be acquired for $55 billion by a consortium of investors including Silver Lake, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and Affinity Partners. The $55 billion purchase price represents a 30% premium over EA’s market cap of $42.3 billion at close on Thursday, September 25, the day before the news leaked. The closest comparable transaction is Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard (ATVI) for $68.7 billion in 2022, representing a 33% premium over ATVI’s prior-day closing market cap of $51.8 billion.
EA’s stock had already seen a run-up of around 15% six months prior to the deal announcement, likely reflecting the market's anticipation of a successful release of Battlefield 6. The timing of the deal, along with the 30% premium, suggests that EA is selling at a high point and generating great value for its shareholders. But the deal puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the success of Battlefield 6, which is one of a handful of valuable IP franchises that EA owns outright.
EA has been tremendously successful in developing and publishing games based on licensed IP, such as its soccer franchise EA Sports FC (formerly FIFA), Madden NFL, and various Star Wars titles. But, in terms of proprietary IP, EA’s most valuable franchises are Battlefield, The Sims, and Apex Legends/Titanfall (developed by Respawn Entertainment). Neither The Sims nor Apex is scheduled for any major new releases, so the near-term valuation of EA’s proprietary IP lies in the success of the Battlefield 6 launch.
Forward-looking vision
EA CEO Andrew Wilson said of the Battlefield franchise: “This isn’t just a product. We’re really building out Battlefield as a platform.” The early success of Battlefield 6’s sales will allow us to identify early winners and losers on the transaction; however, the longevity of the franchise and EA’s ability to transition Battlefield to a live-service platform will be the true barometer of a successful investment by EA’s new sponsors. If EA can steer the franchise towards an evergreen platform with continuous content updates, elements of user-generated content, and innovative monetization, it could create one of the premium IP pillars in the video game industry that can withstand market volatility and deliver premium experiences to consumers.
You can also read related expert opinions on the video game market with Altman Solon’s analysis of video game industry growth opportunities.
